Sat. Jul 2nd, 2022

Market conditions can change on a dime in the cryptocurrency industry, but after a weekend of sharp declines it was nice to see most of the 10 leading cryptocurrencies trading in the green, led by bitcoin. XRP and Tether have been meandering between positive and negative territory, but bitcoin is up nearly 3% in the last 24 hours and is perched above the $7,100 level once again.

Everyone is looking for signs of a bottom, and market leaders are observing are some indications that the bulls are warming up. For instance, according to Mati Greenspan, Founder of QuantumEconomics.io, the tables are beginning to turn, with the number of “bitcoin buy positions” outpacing “bitcoin sell positions” by a wide margin.

 

Source: Twitter

Greenspan also points out in his note that it’s been a long five months since the bitcoin price attained its 2019 high of nearly $14,000, saying today:

“So far down 53% from the recent peak, this movement is consistent with the sort of mid-bull-cycle pullbacks we’ve seen previously from the global internet currency.”

So there is an historical precedent for the way that the cryptocurrency market is trading.

Meanwhile, there are further signs that the tide could be beginning to turn.

Source: Twitter

On Crypto Twitter, PlanB, whose account is described as “bitcoin quant stuff” and who boasts nearly 53,000 followers, similarly sees the technical stars aligning for the bitcoin price, saying:

Call me crazy, but it wouldn’t surprise me if BTC closes 2019 at $10k+ .. opportunities like this (bitcoin below S2F model value, 6 months before the halving) are rare.” 

Willy Woo, another popular crypto analyst, isn’t holding his breath, giving bitcoin mere days to reclaim $8,300. If the crypto market fails to rally before December, he might use it as an opportunity to accumulate more coins at a bargain.

“We’d need to close above 8300 by the end of the month (4 more days), or we’ll likely have a bearish December to test new lows. 2020 will be a good year, I almost want it to go lower to collect cheaper coins.”

Fear and Greed

Indeed, the crypto market isn’t completely out of the woods yet, as evidenced in part by a fear and greed index that has fallen to two-month lows. According to Alternative.me, a reading of zero reflects “extreme fear,” and the index fell to 17 on Nov. 25, which is the lowest it has dropped since September.

Source: Alternative.me 

If you thought Willy Woo’s bitcoin price outlook was tough, you haven’t seen anything yet. Billionaire trader Mike Novogratz, who is at the helm of crypto merchant bank Galaxy Digital, is watching the charts and can’t deny what he is seeing:

“Chart needs to recover 7500 in next two days or we will be in a 6k-7400 range which would be less than pleasant. BTC still up 95% on the year to keep perspective, but man, I liked it better above 10k.” 

Earlier this year, Novogratz presciently predicted that the BTC price would be stuck in a tight range of $7,000 to $10,000, with upside bias. He was right and that scenario played out over the summer months. Bitcoin would have to tack on another $300 by Wednesday to land on the bullish side of Novogratz’s bet, which for such a volatile cryptocurrency isn’t too far fetched.