Sun. Aug 7th, 2022

Bitcoin (BTC) Weekly Ichimoku Chart

One of the most powerful trading systems that can be utilized in any market is the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo trading system. For trending markets using three-dimensional chart styles (price, time, and volume) like Japanese Candlesticks, few trading systems help confirm the direction of a trade than Ichimoku. In my opinion, the best timeframe to truly gauge the course of a trend utilizing Ichimoku Kinko Hyo analysis is the weekly chart. This time frame is a good mix between a long-term chart like the monthly chart and a short term chart like the daily chart. In the Ichimoku system, there is a conservative but powerful strategy known as the Ideal Ichimoku Breakout. The conditions for this are as follows:

  1. Price above the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen.
  2. Tenkan-Sen is greater than the Kijun-Sen.
  3. Future Senkou Span A greater than Future Senkou Span B
    1. Or, if Future Senkou Span A is less than Senkou Span B, Span B must be flat, and Span A must be sloping up.
  4. Price above the Cloud.
  5. The Chikou Span above the Cloud and in open space.
NASDAQ 2010 – 2020

Because of the very conservative nature of these conditions, we see occurrences of the Ideal Ichimoku Breakout on very rare occasions. But when they do occur, it is often a prolonged and powerful move. For example, on the NASDAQ’s weekly Ichimoku chart (above), there have only been four instances of the Ideal Ichimoku Breakout occurring since 2010 – and two of them occurred relatively close together during a short period of indecision and consolidation.

Total Crypto Market Cap

When did the cryptocurrency market last experience this bullish event? We have to go all the way to 2015. That’s right – we’d have to go all the way to even before the 2016 and 2017 rallies. Speaking of rallies – what happened to the cryptocurrency market during the last Ideal Ichimoku Breakout? The market spent 763 days moving higher from a market cap of 5.58 billion to 682.45 billion. That is a vast, mind-blowing 12,224.45% gain. Should we expect the same to occur again? That’s a great question. In 2015, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, in general, were known to only a few people. It wasn’t until 2016 that we saw a significant push of retail money into cryptocurrencies. But we’ve seen massive adoption by big entities and professional money as well. Heck, some of the most recent cryptocurrency news is all about big players entering or continuing to grow their presence in the crypto-sphere.

  1. From cointelegraph: Nomura Research Institute (NRI), Japan’s largest consulting firm, is launching its cryptocurrency index fund.
  2. From CCN: Square (SQ) successfully patents fiat-to-crypto, crypto-to-fiat payment system on the Lightning Network (Bitcoin).
  3. Also from CCN: Life changing alt-coin bull market to occur.

 

Whether Bitcoin or altcoins will rally the most remains to be seen (my money is on altcoins). What is certain is this: the frequency of the Ideal Ichimoku Breakout on a weekly chart is so infrequent and almost always bullish that it to not anticipate a massive and prolonged bull move is to miss out on one of most successful events in cryptocurrency history. At what market cap valuation does this occur? The image below tells us.

Life-changing bull event very near.

Once the cryptocurrency market cap reaches the 300 billion market cap, all conditions for the Ideal Ichimoku Breakout will have Life-changing – and a new life-changing event will begin.