Sun. Aug 7th, 2022

Bitcoin (BTC) may need to drop more

Reports abound that Bitcoin could drop into the $4k value area before experiencing any further price action higher. I believe that a move to the $4k value area is probable, but not likely – unless it was a flash crash. Newsbtc reported that the threat of a return to $4,500 remains. According to the reporter, analysts said that the move to $4,500 might be a required catalyst before the halving event in May 2020. A somewhat contrary view was provided by cointelegraph where they quoted Twitter user PlanB. PlanB identified the average price of Bitcoin before the halving event in 2020 will be $8200. After that, he reported a dramatic run to $100,000 by the end of 2022. How likely is this? And what route would Bitcoin take? Unknown – that is quite a bit of distance out. But we can identify at least a date for Bitcoin reaching $100,000.

W.D. Gann’s Square of 9

The image above is Gann’s Square of 9 – one of Gann’s principle tools used in his forecasting. The starting price I have utilized is Bitcoin’s all-time high of $19,870. The increment size per block is 32. As we rotate around the Square of 9, we can identify specific dates and prices. PlanB was reported saying that the high for Bitcoin would be $100,000 in late 2022. If we use anniversary dates as important levels for cyclical studies, then starting on the all-time high of December 17th puts the Square of 9 in the 0-degree formation. Across its price range, we can see two levels that are close to the $100,000 for December 17th, 2022. They are: $97,470 and $103,902. We typically do see Bitcoin make great swing highs and lows in the final quarter of the calendar year, even moving into January. Because of this, we can and should identify those dates and prices.

Square-root method

The first thing I do is review the Square of 9 and find the important angles that are often associated with major moves in the market – the 45-degree and 90-degree angles. November 02th, 2022 is a 45-degree angle on the Square of 9 (225-degrees). The value in this range are $96,670 to $103,070. Perhaps not much of a coincidence is the fact that exactly $100,000 occurs on a 45-degree angle on the date of April 30th, 2022. 180-degrees from that date is November 2nd, 2022. If using the starting price and date of the all-time high seems a little daunting, then we can use the square-root method instead, which will bring us to the standard and default settings of the Square of 9. The square-root of $100,000 is 316 (316.22776). 316 is an exact 90-degree angle that lands on the important Gann Seasonal date of June 21st. 180-days from that is December 22nd. The square-root methods give a much broader range of prices, especially for December 22nd. On that particular date, we could expect to see Bitcoin anywhere between $78,961 (281 squared) to $123, 904 (352 squared).

Regardless of the method shown, we won’t be able to pinpoint a more precise price level until we see price action play out more over the next 24 months. The $100,000 price level is certainly not outside the realm of probability or possibility. We need to remember how many of us thought Bitcoin would ever reach $20k from $800 in 2017. As a measure of proportion, Bitcoin moving to a new all-time high of $100,000 from $20,000 is a tiny move of +400% versus the +2,377% gain in 2017 from $800 to $20,000.

 

 

 

By Dov Herman

Dov is a Blockchain and Forex trading enthusiast, who spends most of his time trading and examining software who are related to cryptocurrencies and forex trading. You can follow on Dov’s reviews and articles here on TrustedBrokerz and across the web.